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Commodity News |
HeadLine : |
EUR/USD ticks up after Yellen's comments put March hike into question |
Date : |
Feb 11 2016 |
EUR/USD inched up on Wednesday on a
volatile day of trading, after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen
provided few indications on the timing of the Fed's next interest
rate move in guarded testimony on Capitol Hill.
The currency pair traded in a broad
range between 1.1161 and 1.1315 before settling at 1.1291, up 0.0003
or 0.02% on the session. The euro staged a late rally against the
dollar to extend a three-day winning streak. EUR/USD has now closed
higher in 11 of the last 13 sessions and is up by nearly 4% since the
end of last month. In Tuesday's session, the euro posted sharp gains
to close at its highest level versus the greenback since
late-October.
EUR/USD likely gained support at
1.0538, the low from December 3 and was met with resistance at
1.1496, the high from Oct. 15.
While Yellen noted on Wednesday that
widespread market volatility and a weak dollar continued to pose
growth risks to the U.S. economy, she appeared confident that
inflation will move back toward the Fed's targeted goal of 2%, while
reiterating that the labor market is close to full employment.
Yellen's semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services
Committee could be interpreted as neither dovish, nor hawkish,
providing further ambiguity on whether the Fed will raise short-term
interest rates before the end of the summer.
Yellen's testimony marked her first
appearance on Capitol Hill since the Federal Open Market Committee
(FOMC) ended a seven-year zero interest policy late last year. At a
historic meeting in mid-December, the FOMC raised short-term interest
rates for the first time in nearly a decade by lifting the target
range on its benchmark Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points to 0.25
and 0.50%. The FOMC followed by leaving the target rate unchanged at
a meeting in late-January.
In her testimony, Yellen emphasized
that the Fed's monetary policy cycle is not on a preset course, as
further interest rate decisions will continue to depend on incoming
economic data over the next several months. Yellen also noted that
the neutral nominal federal funds rate, or the rate which is neither
expansionary or contractionary if the economy is operating at its
full potential, is "currently low by historical standards."
Yellen cited a range of economic headwinds for restraining the rate
including: the appreciation of the dollar, limited credit
availability for borrowers and weak growth abroad.
Moving forward, Yellen stressed that
diminishing slack in the labor market and a bottoming of oil price
declines could help move inflation back toward the Fed's long-term
targeted goal of 2%. Core PCE Inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge of
inflation, currently hovers at 1.4%, considerably below the FOMC's
objective.
"In particular, stronger growth or
a more rapid increase in inflation than the Committee currently
anticipates would suggest that the neutral federal funds rate was
rising more quickly than expected, making it appropriate to raise the
federal funds rate more quickly as well," Yellen testified.
Markets interpreted Yellen's comments
as fairly dovish, as the CME Group's (O:CME) Fed Watch lowered the
probability of a March interest rate hike to 0% on Wednesday, down
from 4.2% a day earlier. The CME Group also lowered the odds of a
December rate hike to 17.3%, from Tuesday's level of 20.8%. Any rate
hikes this year are viewed as bullish for the dollar, as foreign
investors pile into the greenback in an effort to capitalize on
higher yields.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures
the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major
currencies, rose by more than 0.35% to an intraday high of 96.77,
before falling slightly back at the close. The index tumbled by more
than 1% on Tuesday to an intraday low of 95.68, its lowest level
since late-October. Since the FOMC released its latest monetary
policy statement on Jan. 27, the dollar has fallen by more than 2.5%.
Yields on the U.S. 10-Year lost six
basis points to 1.67%, while yields on the Germany 10-Year gained one
basis point to 0.24%. Government bond yields on U.S. 10-year
Treasuries have fallen 45 basis points over the last month.
Source:-Forexpros
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