Commodity News
HeadLine : Dollar steady as PCE data sets up June rate cut bets; yen in focus
Date : Apr 1 2024
The dollar was broadly steady on Monday as data showing easing U.S. prices bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in June, while the yen loitered near 152 per dollar keeping traders on edge on the threat of intervention. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% in February, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Friday, compared with the 0.4% rise that economists polled by Reuters had forecast. The report also showed consumer spending rising by the most in just over a year last month, underscoring the economy's resilience. Most markets across the globe were closed on Friday. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the latest U.S. inflation data was "along the lines of what we would like to see," in comments that tallied with his remarks after the Fed's policy meeting last month. Markets are now pricing in 68.5% chance of the Fed cutting rates in June versus 57% chance at the end of last week, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Traders are also pricing in 75 basis points of cuts this year. The spotlight in the currency market has been on the yen as its move toward levels last seen in 1990 revives the threat of intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen touched a 34-year low against the dollar of 151.975 on Wednesday and was last at 151.315 per dollar, a shade stronger, on Monday. Japan intervened in the currency market in 2022, first in September and again in October, as the yen slid toward a 32-year low of 152 to the dollar. Japan's plans for the yen remain difficult to predict. Its fiscal year has ended, meaning the Bank of Japan does not need to worry about sudden yen movement impacting balance sheets. But news of last week's emergency meeting of the three monetary authorities – the Ministry of Finance (MOF), BOJ and Financial Services Agency – and jawboning from officials seem to have worked to bring the yen back from 34-year lows.

Source: Reuters
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