Commodity News
HeadLine : Light wind in dollar's sails after bumper US payrolls
Date : Apr 8 2024
The dollar was firm but sluggish in Asian trading on Monday as investors looked ahead to U.S. inflation data after the big payrolls number last week, and as Treasury yields reached for December highs. U.S. consumer price inflation for March on Wednesday and a European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday will be the main economic markers for the big global currencies this week. Those follow a week of vacillation as traders watched Japanese authorities talk their currency higher, and as U.S. services, the closely watched employment report on Friday and a bunch of Federal Reserve speakers sent mixed signals on rates. The dollar was just marginally higher, with the Canadian dollar the biggest loser at 0.5% among the six currencies in the dollar's trade-weighted index. The dollar "can remain supported this week if the U.S. CPI for March remains solid as we expect," analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said. In the United States, a tight job market and limited progress on inflation in the last couple of months have amplified calls among top officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, to be "patient" as they approach the decision on when to cut rates. The March consumer price index is key for market participants seeking evidence that factors that made inflation accelerate more than expected at the start of the year are abating. Yields on U.S. debt have meanwhile pushed higher. At the short end of the curve, the two-year yield, which reflects interest rate move expectations, hit 4.765%, the highest since Dec. 11 . The dollar's biggest gains this year have been against the two big funding currencies for carry trades, the yen and Swiss franc . Both are down roughly 7% each versus the dollar this year. The base case for the ECB is to hold rates this week and possibly reinforce the possibility of a cut in June. But, while the ECB is increasingly confident that inflation is heading back to its 2% target, it has remained vague about further easing.

Source: Reuters
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